Model to predict septicemia in diarrheic calves



Title Model to predict septicemia in diarrheic calves
Author(s) Jeanne Lofstedt, Ian R. Dohoo, G. Duizer
Journal Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine / American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine
Date 1999
Volume 13
Issue 2
Start page 81
End page 88
Abstract The difficulty in distinguishing between septicemic and nonsepticemic diarrheic calves prompted a study of variables to predict septicemia in diarrheic calves 5.66 mg/dL (>500 micromol/L) (odds ratio [OR] = 8.63, P = .021), toxic changes in neutrophils > or = 2+ (OR = 2.88, P = .026), failure of passive transfer (OR = 2.72, P = .023), presence of focal infection (OR = 2.68. P = .024), and poor suckle reflex (OR = 4.10, P = .019). Four variables retained significance in the clinical model: age 90%, indicating that >90% of nonsepticemic calves would be predicted to be nonsepticemic by the 2 models. The positive and negative predictive values of the models were 66-82%, which indicated the proportion of cases for which a predictive result would be correct in a population with a prevalence of septicemia of 31%.

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